An interpretation of the OCR decision
01/02/2013 § 5 Comments
I’m finding this monetary discussion interesting and useful. Matt Nolan and Eric Crampton have added a lot to it. Since the Reserve Bank decided yesterday to leave the OCR unchanged at 2.5%, I thought I’d offer an interpretation.
The Bank is balancing several different concerns. Some factors point toward looser policy: inflation below the target band, weak labour market, ‘fiscal consolidation’, and a high exchange rate. Other factors point toward tightening: house price inflation in Auckland, expectations for the Christchurch rebuild, positive business sentiment. They’ve split the difference and kept the OCR unchanged. Bernard Hickey explained this very well on Breakfast this morning.
Is it a good decision? We’ll only know that later in the year. But here are some thoughts on it.
First, the RBNZ has been consistently optimistic about the economy over the last several quarters, predicting increases in the OCR that didn’t eventuate. As part of that, the Christchurch rebuild has consistently underperformed. That suggests that if the Bank is wrong, they are likely to be on the high side.
Secondly, other people clearly have a more pessimistic view. Eric pointed to the iPredict website and the predictions for the economy. He noted:
That’s consistent with the Bank’s own forecasts in December 2012 (pdf).
The Bank had essentially two choices, with their own costs and benefits:
|OCR lower||Possibility of overshooting||Greater economic activity|
|OCR unchanged||Higher unemployment||Inflation below 2%|
Looked at this way, the OCR decision means that the Bank has chosen the certainty of higher unemployment rather than face the possibility of missing its inflation target, a possibility that should be considered against a backdrop of misplaced optimism. If I were being churlish, I would suggest that Auckland’s failure to deal with its planning issues is resulting in tens of thousands of people being purposely kept out of work. But I won’t — it wouldn’t be politic.