We’re alright, actually
15/11/2013 § 7 Comments
There is much gnashing of teeth and rending of garments over New Zealand’s economic performance. It’s a staple of political and economic commentary. We have low per-capita incomes, we need to be in the top half of the OECD, we need to catch up to Australia, brain drain is killing the country, business owners need to focus on their businesses rather than buying motorboats, etc.
I’ve been looking recently at Legatum Prosperity Index. What it says is, we’re alright, actually:
- 5th overall out of 142 countries
- 1st in education
- most efficient life satisfaction of the top ten countries (satisfaction / income).
Back to basics. The point of economic activity is utility/satisfaction/welfare. We aren’t playing with these little pieces of coloured paper to make them happy — it has already been conclusively established that they are fine. So what we really want to know is whether we are producing satisfaction.
Now, yes, GDP does correlate with a whole mess of other indicators. Money gives us the ability to pay for healthcare, to make environmental improvements, to pay for digital watches. But it doesn’t perfectly correlate, and there appear to be diminishing marginal returns to GDP gains (natch’). So if GDP doesn’t measure what we are really interested in, can we do better measurement?
That’s where the Legatum Index comes in. There are a number of these alternative indices — this just happens to be the one a colleague sent. It uses 89 variables to create 8 sub-indices, which are then combined into a single aggregate measure. The method is described in brief, and then in more detail (pdf). I’m still not sure that I could replicate it from the available information, but it’s reasonably clear what they’ve done. Instead of using one statistic — GDP — they’ve taken a whole lot of statistics measuring different things and run them through a blender. We can quibble over the weightings applied or the inclusion of this or that statistic — and sensitivity analysis would tell us how important those things are — but they are trying to get a better, more complete picture.
Is more data better? Well, it changes the story. Instead of performing poorly because of low incomes, New Zealand performs well because of the other 88 pieces of data. Our health performance suffers — a worrying 20th. Safety and security is 15th, again a bit of a concern. But overall, y’know, we’re alright. There are worse places to be. Which, of course, makes sense given the number of people here who are from elsewhere.
A composite index does something else: it allows people to make their own decisions based on their preferences. If healthcare is really, really important to you, then New Zealand probably isn’t where you should settle. If your preferences line up with Legatum’s, then life’s pretty sweet. If governance, social capital and education are your main concerns, then you really can’t do any better.
So when the next round of wailing and self-flagellation starts, take comfort that it ain’t all bad.
The good news is that according to the OECD “New Zealand performs exceptionally well in overall well-being, as shown by the fact that it ranks among the top countries in a large number of topics in the “Better Life Index” . What follows are a list of some of the specifics – both good and not so good.